Event box

Uyuni saltflats, a white foreground stretching away, with distant hills and an turquoise sky. Pentland Centre, Lancaster University. CRUCIAL: Expert Prediction Markets for Climate Risk. Dr Kim Kaivanto, LUMS & Dr Mark Roulston, University of Exeter

Many planning and investment decisions require an understanding of how future climate change will manifest itself. While there are many relevant sources of information and expertise, decision makers face significant difficulties in accessing, interpreting, and appraising it. Moreover, there are several problems in the institutional arrangements of current climate risk information provision. This presentation proposes expert prediction markets as a potential solution to these problems, and discusses the CRUCIAL (Climate Risk and Uncertainty Collective Intelligence Aggregation Laboratory) initiative between the Universities of Lancaster and Exeter to establish such markets.

All welcome - registration required.

Please register below - registrations close 24 hours before the event.

Photo by Leonardo Rossatti (Pexels)

Wednesday, January 25, 2023
13:00 - 14:00
Management School LT19
Dr Kim Kaivanto and Dr Mark Roulston

Dr Kim KaivantoKim is an economist whose research centres on the interplay between normative and behavioural models of decision making under risk and uncertainty, with applications in financial and non-financial problem settings such as cybersecurity and climate change. He is Programme Director of the LUMS MSc in Money, Banking and Finance, and has worked on cross-faculty research projects with LEC, Psychology, and Computer Science.






Dr Mark RoulstonMark is a planetary scientist whose research has focussed on climate and weather. After completing his PhD at Caltech, he worked on climate predictability at Oxford University, Pennsylvania State University, the UK Met Office, and Winton Capital. He is currently affiliated with the University of Exeter’s Land, Environment, Economics and Policy Institute (LEEP).






Health & Safety and access information

  • In order to safeguard everyone's health, if you test positive for Covid-19 before the event, or are feeling unwell in any way, please don't attend (and please let us know).
  • You are encouraged to wear face coverings during the event, unless eating and drinking.
  • Please maintain good hand hygiene, washing your hands regularly/before eating or drinking, and making use of hand sanitiser.
  • The room is wheelchair accessible and has an induction loop


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